Oviedo vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Oviedo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,938 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oviedo vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Oviedo (1,975) and Castellón (2,067).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Oviedo vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Oviedo
4-4-2- 10Alberto Reina
- 18V. Mingo
- 5Y. Didi
- 8Mikel Goti
- 16Aritz Aldasoro
- 32Enzo Perez
- 12Dani Calvo
- 23Carlos Domínguez
- 15S. Rodriguez
- 21David Jiménez
- 13Aarón Escandell
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 8Barri
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 6M. Orozco
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 05:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oviedo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Castellón have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Eibar(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Eldense(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sabadell(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Oviedo wins, 1 draw, 2 Castellón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | Oviedo 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Castellón 0-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Castellón 2-1 Oviedo | Copa del Rey |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Castellón 1-0 Oviedo | Segunda División |
| Nov 8, 2020 | Oviedo 4-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Oviedo score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Castellón | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oviedo sit 9th in Segunda División (17 points from 10 matches) and Castellón sit 2nd (23 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Oviedo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
A question about Oviedo vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oviedo vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Oviedo.
- Where and when is Oviedo vs Castellón played?
- Oviedo vs Castellón is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.