Valladolid vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 20Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Valladolid
The Footlab AI model makes Valladolid the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valladolid wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 3,135 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valladolid vs Burgos?
On Elo ratings, Valladolid has 1,914 points and Burgos 2,035.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valladolid vs Burgos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valladolid
4-1-3-2- 19Adrian Arnuncio
- 9Juanmi Latasa
- 21J. Ponceau
- 24S. Jurić
- 8T. Ojeda
- 30Víctor Fernández
- 4David Torres
- 27Iván Garriel
- 15Pablo Tomeo
- 14Iván Alejo
- 1Álvaro Aceves
Burgos
4-4-2- 7Jon Karrikaburu
- 16Curro Sánchez
- 19Javi Llabrés
- 14David González
- 12Unai Vencedor
- 4P. Galdames
- 15Oier Luengo
- 8Grego
- 22Brais Martínez
- 2Álex
- 13Ander Cantero
Computed on October 24, 2026 at 04:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valladolid have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Burgos have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Granada CF(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Granada CF(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Almeria(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Valladolid wins, 2 draws, 2 Burgos wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Valladolid 0-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Burgos 0-1 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Burgos 2-2 Valladolid | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Valladolid 1-1 Burgos | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Burgos 1-0 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Valladolid 3-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Valladolid score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valladolid sit 13th in Segunda División (12 points from 11 matches) and Burgos sit 8th (17 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 17 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 12 |
A question about Valladolid vs Burgos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valladolid vs Burgos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valladolid the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Valladolid vs Burgos played?
- Valladolid vs Burgos is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.