PAOK vs Panathinaikos: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 14Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
The Footlab model makes PAOK the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Panathinaikos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate PAOK (2,071) and Panathinaikos (2,026).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PAOK have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Panathinaikos have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 4-0 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brann(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Anderlecht(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dynamo Kyiv(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Hradec Králové(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Paks(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Paks(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 PAOK win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Panathinaikos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Panathinaikos 2-2 PAOK | Super League 1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | PAOK 0-0 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | PAOK 2-0 Panathinaikos | Cup |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Panathinaikos 0-1 PAOK | Cup |
| Dec 21, 2025 | PAOK 2-0 Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Panathinaikos 2-1 PAOK | Super League 1 |
Last archived meeting: Panathinaikos vs PAOK on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PAOK score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Panathinaikos score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAOK | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Panathinaikos | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PAOK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PAOK vs Panathinaikos?
- The Footlab model makes PAOK the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Panathinaikos.
- Where and when is PAOK vs Panathinaikos played?
- PAOK vs Panathinaikos is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Toumbas, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.