Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 1Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Rennes. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain starts as the favourite with a 271-point Elo edge (2,300 vs 2,029).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rennes have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rennes win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Paris Saint Germain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Rennes 1-4 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Rennes | Coupe de France |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 1-1 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rennes score 1.9 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 15/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rennes sit 6th in Ligue 1 (59 points from 34 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 1st (76 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 74 | 29 | 76 |
| 6 | Rennes | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 | 50 | 59 |
Who is out?
4 reported absence(s) for this match.
- B. BarcolaParis Saint GermainOut(Inactive)
- I. MbayeParis Saint GermainOut(Inactive)
- Nuno MendesParis Saint GermainOut(Red Card)
- M. CamaraRennesOut(Yellow Cards)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Rennes.
- Where and when is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain is played on August 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.