Match

Pergolettese vs Novara: prediction and stats

Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 23Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Voltini, Crema

PergoletteseNovara

The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Pergolettese. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pergolettese vs Novara?

A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Pergolettese (1,671) and Novara (1,757).

Pergolettese win28 %
Draw30 %
Novara win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pergolettese have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Novara have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pergolettese
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Cittadella(away)0-2Serie C - Girone A
Aug 14, 2026PRO Vercelli(away)1-1Coppa Italia Serie C
Aug 9, 2026Inter U23(home)0-0Friendlies Clubs
Apr 25, 2026Lecco(home)3-0Serie C - Girone A
Apr 19, 2026Vicenza Virtus(away)0-0Serie C - Girone A
Novara
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Juventus U23(away)0-1Serie C - Girone A
Aug 16, 2026Alcione(away)1-0Coppa Italia Serie C
Aug 5, 2026Virtus Entella(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026Sampdoria(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Apr 25, 2026Ospitaletto(away)2-0Serie C - Girone A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Pergolettese win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Novara win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 7, 2026Novara 1-1 PergoletteseSerie C - Girone A
Nov 1, 2025Pergolettese 2-2 NovaraSerie C - Girone A
Feb 15, 2025Pergolettese 1-2 NovaraSerie C - Girone A
Oct 5, 2024Novara 3-1 PergoletteseSerie C - Girone A
Mar 24, 2024Pergolettese 1-1 NovaraSerie C - Girone A
Nov 19, 2023Novara 2-1 PergoletteseSerie C - Girone A

Last archived meeting: Novara vs Pergolettese on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Pergolettese score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Pergolettese1.01.146/156/15
Novara1.31.158/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pergolettese sit 20th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Novara sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
18Novara1001010
20Pergolettese1001020

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pergolettese vs Novara?
The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Pergolettese.
Where and when is Pergolettese vs Novara played?
Pergolettese vs Novara is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Voltini, in the Serie C - Girone A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Pergolettese and Novara

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