Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,886) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-2 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-1 Polonia Warszawa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 12, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 2-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2021 | Polonia Warszawa 0-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-3 Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki played?
- Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Arka GdyniavsLechia Gdansk
- Apr 17, 2027Chrobry GłogówvsPolonia Bytom
- Apr 17, 2027Odra OpolevsRuch Chorzów
- Apr 17, 2027PodbeskidzievsŁKS Łódź
- Apr 17, 2027Puszcza NiepołomicevsNieciecza
- Apr 17, 2027Stal MielecvsMiedz Legnica
- Apr 17, 2027Stal RzeszówvsPogoń Siedlce
- Apr 17, 2027Unia SkierniewicevsWarta Poznań