Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia
The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Lechia Gdansk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,900) and Lechia Gdansk (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Lechia Gdansk have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 4-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Warta Poznań(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arka Gdynia win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Lechia Gdansk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Arka Gdynia 2-2 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
| May 19, 2024 | Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Arka Gdynia 1-0 Lechia Gdansk | I Liga |
| May 31, 2020 | Lechia Gdansk 4-3 Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Arka Gdynia 2-2 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arka Gdynia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Lechia Gdansk | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Lechia Gdansk sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk?
- The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 47%, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Lechia Gdansk.
- Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk played?
- Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 17, 2027Chrobry GłogówvsPolonia Bytom
- Apr 17, 2027Odra OpolevsRuch Chorzów
- Apr 17, 2027PodbeskidzievsŁKS Łódź
- Apr 17, 2027Puszcza NiepołomicevsNieciecza
- Apr 17, 2027Stal MielecvsMiedz Legnica
- Apr 17, 2027Stal RzeszówvsPogoń Siedlce
- Apr 17, 2027Unia SkierniewicevsWarta Poznań
- Apr 17, 2027Polonia WarszawavsPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki