Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Znicza (MZOS), Pruszków
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835) and Polonia Warszawa (1,886).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Polonia Warszawa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Polonia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-2 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Polonia Warszawa 2-1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-1 Polonia Warszawa | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 12, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 2-4 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2021 | Polonia Warszawa 0-2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 3-3 Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st in I Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Warszawa sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa played?
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Miedz LegnicavsStal Mielec
- Oct 17, 2026Lechia GdanskvsArka Gdynia
- Oct 17, 2026NiecieczavsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Oct 17, 2026Warta PoznańvsUnia Skierniewice
- Oct 17, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsPodbeskidzie
- Oct 17, 2026Pogoń SiedlcevsStal Rzeszów
- Oct 17, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsOdra Opole
- Oct 17, 2026Polonia BytomvsChrobry Głogów