PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Excelsior. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,398 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 296-point Elo edge (2,205 vs 1,909).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 21S. Mijnans
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 7R. van Bommel
- 5I. Perišić
- 31N. Fernandez
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 2L. Geertruida
- 32M. Kovář
Excelsior
4-3-3- 19D. Garden
- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Excelsior have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 PSV Eindhoven wins, 0 draws, 0 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Excelsior 1-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 14, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 5-4 Excelsior | KNVB Beker |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Excelsior 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and Excelsior sit 9th (11 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 19 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
A question about PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Excelsior.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.