Match

Real Avilés vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 38Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés

Real AvilésPonferradina

The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Avilés wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,049 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Avilés vs Ponferradina?

A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Real Avilés (1,924) and Ponferradina (1,983).

40%28%32%
Real Avilés winDrawPonferradina win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Real Avilés vs Ponferradina

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Real Avilés

4-3-3
  1. 14Berto Cayarga
  2. 8B. Abelenda
  3. 19N. Poquet
  1. 7Cris Montes
  2. 9Álvaro Santamaría
  3. 5Samuel
  1. 20O. Carracedo
  2. 21Jon Sillero
  3. 23A. Lopez
  4. 15Eric Pérez
  1. 1Álvaro Ratón

Ponferradina

4-3-3
  1. 10Borja Valle
  2. 7C. Calderon
  3. 11Quicala Bari
  1. 6Fede San Emeterio
  2. 15O. Vacas
  3. 8Arturo Molina
  1. 4A. Jelbat
  2. 3Sergio Nieto
  3. 24Koke
  4. 2David Andújar
  1. 1Álex Domínguez

Computed on October 23, 2026 at 06:54 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Ponferradina have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Avilés
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026UD Ourense(home)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2026Ponferradina(away)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Lugo(home)1-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Barakaldo(away)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026CD Coria(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Ponferradina
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Zamora(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2026Real Avilés(home)0-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Mirandes(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Pontevedra(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Mérida AD(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Real Avilés win, 2 draws, 2 Ponferradina wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Ponferradina 0-2 Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 1, 2026Ponferradina 1-1 Real AvilésFriendlies Clubs
May 9, 2026Ponferradina 3-1 Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 31, 2025Real Avilés 0-3 PonferradinaPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 2, 2023Real Avilés 0-0 PonferradinaFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Real Avilés on Oct 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Avilés score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Real Avilés1.61.2310/157/15
Ponferradina0.91.176/155/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Avilés sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 8 matches) and Ponferradina sit 9th (12 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
9Ponferradina83326612
10Real Avilés8323141011

A question about Real Avilés vs Ponferradina?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Ponferradina?
The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Ponferradina.
Where and when is Real Avilés vs Ponferradina played?
Real Avilés vs Ponferradina is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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