Where and when is Real Avilés vs Ponferradina played?

Real Avilés vs Ponferradina is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Real Avilés vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 38Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés

Real Avilés

Ponferradina

The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Avilés vs Ponferradina?

A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Real Avilés (1,868) and Ponferradina (1,968).

Real Avilés win36 %

Draw28 %

Ponferradina win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Ponferradina have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Avilés
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(home)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Mosconia(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 13, 2026	Racing Ferrol(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Racing Santander II(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 5, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

Ponferradina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Marino de Luanco(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Oviedo(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 20, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-4	Primera División RFEF - Play Offs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Real Avilés win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ponferradina win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Ponferradina 1-1 Real Avilés	Friendlies Clubs
May 9, 2026	Ponferradina 3-1 Real Avilés	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 31, 2025	Real Avilés 0-3 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 2, 2023	Real Avilés 0-0 Ponferradina	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Real Avilés on Aug 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Real Avilés	1.5	1.5	2	12/15	8/15
Ponferradina	1.1	1.3	7	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Avilés sit 14th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (44 points from 38 matches) and Ponferradina sit 4th (60 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43	33	60
14	Real Avilés	38	11	11	16	55	67	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Ponferradina?: The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ponferradina.
Where and when is Real Avilés vs Ponferradina played?: Real Avilés vs Ponferradina is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.