Match

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 3Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real MadridRB Leipzig

The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (2,356 vs 2,218).

74%16%10%
Real Madrid winDrawRB Leipzig win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Real Madrid

4-2-3-1
  1. 10Kylian Mbappé
  1. 8F. Valverde
  2. 5J. Bellingham
  3. 14A. Tchouaméni
  4. 7Vinícius Júnior
  5. 25Y. Diomande
  1. 16I. Konaté
  2. 17Marc Cucurella
  3. 22A. Rüdiger
  4. 24D. Dumfries
  1. 1T. Courtois

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
  1. 40Rômulo
  1. 7A. Nusa
  2. 21N. El Aynaoui
  3. 28C. Nkunku
  4. 6E. Banzuzi
  5. 10B. Gruda
  1. 4W. Orbán
  2. 22D. Raum
  3. 17R. Baku
  4. 23C. Lukeba
  1. 26M. Vandevoordt

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 07:21 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; RB Leipzig have 8, 0 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Madrid
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2026AS Roma(away)4-3UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Villarreal(home)1-0La Liga
Sep 20, 2026Atletico Madrid(away)1-2La Liga
Sep 15, 2026Elche(away)3-2La Liga
Sep 12, 2026Rayo Vallecano(home)4-1La Liga
RB Leipzig
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)6-0Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-2Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026Hamburger SV(home)5-0Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2026Como(away)1-4UEFA Champions League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Real Madrid wins, 1 draw, 1 RB Leipzig win.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 6, 2024Real Madrid 1-1 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League
Feb 13, 2024RB Leipzig 0-1 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
Oct 25, 2022RB Leipzig 3-2 Real MadridUEFA Champions League
Sep 14, 2022Real Madrid 2-0 RB LeipzigUEFA Champions League

Last archived meeting: Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig on Mar 6, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Real Madrid2.51.1410/1512/15
RB Leipzig2.21.576/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Madrid sit 8th in UEFA Champions League (6 points from 2 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 21st (3 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8Real Madrid2200646
21RB Leipzig2101243

A question about Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 74%, against 16% for a draw and 10% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig played?
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig is played on October 21, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the UEFA Champions League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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