Régua vs AD Marco 09: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Artur Vasques Osório, Peso da Régua
The Footlab model makes AD Marco 09 the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Régua. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Régua vs AD Marco 09?
AD Marco 09 starts as the favourite with a 284-point Elo edge (1,899 vs 1,614).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Régua have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; AD Marco 09 have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Guarda(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Salgueiros(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 30, 2025 | União Lamas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Gondomar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Marítimo II(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Régua win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 AD Marco 09 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2025 | Régua 0-1 AD Marco 09 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 6, 2024 | AD Marco 09 2-1 Régua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Régua score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; AD Marco 09 score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Régua | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| AD Marco 09 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Régua vs AD Marco 09?
- The Footlab model makes AD Marco 09 the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Régua.
- Where and when is Régua vs AD Marco 09 played?
- Régua vs AD Marco 09 is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Artur Vasques Osório, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.