San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes San Diego the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for San Jose Earthquakes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate San Diego (1,831) and San Jose Earthquakes (1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Diego have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; San Jose Earthquakes have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Club America(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 San Diego win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 San Jose Earthquakes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 3-0 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
| Jan 24, 2026 | San Diego 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 28, 2025 | San Diego 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 San Diego | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: San Jose Earthquakes vs San Diego on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Diego score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; San Jose Earthquakes score 1.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.9 | 2.0 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Diego sit 13th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 20 matches) and San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 33 |
| 13 | San Diego | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 32 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- The Footlab model makes San Diego the favourite at 45%, against 23% for a draw and 32% for San Jose Earthquakes.
- Where and when is San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes played?
- San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes is played on September 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC), in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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