Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 13Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Sarmiento Junin the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Barracas Central. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Sarmiento Junin (1,801) and Barracas Central (1,826).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarmiento Junin have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Barracas Central have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Banfield(away) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Aldosivi(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sarmiento Junin win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Barracas Central win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Barracas Central 1-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Barracas Central 0-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Barracas Central | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 19, 2024 | Barracas Central 1-1 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 0-0 Barracas Central | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Barracas Central 1-1 Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Barracas Central vs Sarmiento Junin on Apr 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarmiento Junin score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Barracas Central score 0.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarmiento Junin | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Barracas Central | 0.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarmiento Junin sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Barracas Central sit 9th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarmiento Junin | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Barracas Central | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 21 |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
- The Footlab model makes Sarmiento Junin the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Barracas Central.
- Where and when is Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central played?
- Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central is played on October 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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