Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 27Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC)Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
The Footlab model makes Seattle Sounders the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Sporting Kansas City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
Seattle Sounders starts as the favourite with a 195-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,604).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Seattle Sounders have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Sporting Kansas City have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Seattle Sounders win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sporting Kansas City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Seattle Sounders 5-2 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Sporting Kansas City 2-3 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Seattle Sounders 2-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| May 7, 2023 | Seattle Sounders 1-2 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Kansas City vs Seattle Sounders on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Seattle Sounders score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Kansas City score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Seattle Sounders sit 13th in Major League Soccer (25 points from 20 matches) and Sporting Kansas City sit 15th (15 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 27 | 25 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City?
- The Footlab model makes Seattle Sounders the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Sporting Kansas City.
- Where and when is Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City played?
- Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City is played on October 2, 2026 at 01:30 AM (UTC) at Lumen Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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- Sep 9, 2026Philadelphia UnionvsFC Cincinnati
- Sep 9, 2026CF MontrealvsCharlotte
- Sep 9, 2026DC UnitedvsColumbus Crew
- Sep 9, 2026Toronto FCvsNashville SC
- Sep 10, 2026AustinvsColorado Rapids
- Sep 10, 2026Houston DynamovsReal Salt Lake