Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 3Group III - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rapid, Katowice
The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Warta Gorzów. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Sparta Katowice (1,831) and Warta Gorzów (1,762).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sparta Katowice have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Warta Gorzów have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ślęza Wrocław(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Goczałkowice Zdrój(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Stal Brzeg(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stilon Gorzów(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Zagłębie Lubin II(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Odra Bytom Odrzański(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Górnik Polkowice(home) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barycz Sułów(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Carina Gubin(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | ROW Rybnik(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Sparta Katowice win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Warta Gorzów win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Sparta Katowice 3-4 Warta Gorzów | III Liga - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Warta Gorzów 0-2 Sparta Katowice | III Liga - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sparta Katowice score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Gorzów score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Katowice | 1.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Warta Gorzów | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sparta Katowice sit 5th in III Liga - Group 3 (10 points from 5 matches) and Warta Gorzów sit 10th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Sparta Katowice | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Warta Gorzów | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów?
- The Footlab model makes Sparta Katowice the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Warta Gorzów.
- Where and when is Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów played?
- Sparta Katowice vs Warta Gorzów is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rapid, in the III Liga - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026SKRA CzęstochowavsMiedź Legnica II
- Oct 3, 2026Stal BrzegvsCarina Gubin
- Oct 3, 2026Stilon GorzówvsBarycz Sułów
- Oct 3, 2026Zagłębie Lubin IIvsGórnik Polkowice
- Oct 3, 2026Ślęza WrocławvsKarkonosze Jelenia Góra
- Oct 3, 2026Goczałkowice ZdrójvsROW Rybnik
- Oct 3, 2026Odra Bytom OdrzańskivsZaglebie Sosnowiec
- Oct 3, 2026SłowianinvsKluczbork