Match

Sporting de Lourel vs Angrense: prediction and stats

Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Sporting de LourelAngrense

The Footlab model makes Sporting de Lourel the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Angrense. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sporting de Lourel vs Angrense?

Sporting de Lourel starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,762 vs 1,634).

Sporting de Lourel win43 %
Draw25 %
Angrense win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Sporting de Lourel have 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Angrense have 2, 1 and 12.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sporting de Lourel
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Jul 7, 2021Estrela(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 25, 20161º Dezembro(away)0-2Taça de Portugal
Sep 4, 2016Beneditense(home)1-2Taça de Portugal
Angrense
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 21, 2025Benfica Castelo Branco(away)1-7Taça de Portugal
Apr 19, 2023FC Serpa(away)2-4Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Apr 8, 2023Lusitano Évora 1911(home)0-2Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Apr 2, 2023Juventude Évora(away)0-6Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D
Mar 19, 2023Lagos(home)1-1Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

How many goals should we expect?

Sporting de Lourel score 0.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 3; Angrense score 0.7 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sporting de Lourel0.31.701/31/3
Angrense0.72.326/157/15

Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sporting de Lourel vs Angrense?
The Footlab model makes Sporting de Lourel the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Angrense.
Where and when is Sporting de Lourel vs Angrense played?
Sporting de Lourel vs Angrense is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Taça de Portugal.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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