St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 31Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Los Angeles Galaxy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate St. Louis City (1,806) and Los Angeles Galaxy (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Louis City have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Los Angeles Galaxy have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 St. Louis City win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Los Angeles Galaxy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy 3-0 St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 14, 2025 | St. Louis City 3-3 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Los Angeles Galaxy 0-3 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 1, 2024 | St. Louis City 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Los Angeles Galaxy 3-3 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Los Angeles Galaxy vs St. Louis City on Jul 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Louis City score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Los Angeles Galaxy score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St. Louis City sit 6th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 21 matches) and Los Angeles Galaxy sit 12th (26 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27 | 32 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy?
- The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Los Angeles Galaxy.
- Where and when is St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy played?
- St. Louis City vs Los Angeles Galaxy is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Toronto FCvsCF Montreal
- Oct 10, 2026Chicago FirevsNew York City FC
- Oct 10, 2026New York Red BullsvsSan Diego
- Oct 10, 2026Atlanta United FCvsFC Cincinnati
- Oct 10, 2026New England RevolutionvsSeattle Sounders
- Oct 10, 2026Inter MiamivsDC United
- Oct 10, 2026CharlottevsFC Dallas
- Oct 10, 2026Orlando City SCvsColumbus Crew