Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Stal, Rzeszów
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Stal Rzeszów. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa?
Polonia Warszawa starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,886 vs 1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stal Rzeszów have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Polonia Warszawa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Mielec(away) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chrobry Głogów(home) | 1-5 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Stal Rzeszów win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Polonia Warszawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów 0-2 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Polonia Warszawa 2-3 Stal Rzeszów | I Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Stal Rzeszów 1-2 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Polonia Warszawa 1-0 Stal Rzeszów | I Liga |
| May 26, 2024 | Stal Rzeszów 1-2 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Polonia Warszawa 2-2 Stal Rzeszów | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stal Rzeszów score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stal Rzeszów | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stal Rzeszów sit 18th in I Liga (2 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Warszawa sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 18 | Stal Rzeszów | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Stal Rzeszów.
- Where and when is Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa played?
- Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Stal, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Miedz LegnicavsChrobry Głogów
- Sep 5, 2026Arka GdyniavsŁKS Łódź
- Sep 5, 2026NiecieczavsLechia Gdansk
- Sep 5, 2026Stal MielecvsOdra Opole
- Sep 5, 2026Pogoń SiedlcevsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Sep 5, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsUnia Skierniewice
- Sep 5, 2026Polonia BytomvsPodbeskidzie
- Sep 5, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsWarta Poznań