Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań played?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Znicza (MZOS), Pruszków

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Warta Poznań

The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań?

A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki (1,835) and Warta Poznań (1,884).

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win36 %

Draw26 %

Warta Poznań win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Warta Poznań have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Polonia Bytom(away)	2-2	I Liga
Aug 14, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	1-1	I Liga
Aug 8, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 2, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	1-0	I Liga
Jul 25, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

Warta Poznań
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chrobry Głogów(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-3	I Liga
Aug 9, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	2-1	I Liga
Aug 5, 2026	Resovia Rzeszów(home)	0-1	Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

How many goals should we expect?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	1.1	1.2	6	8/15	7/15
Warta Poznań	1.7	1.6	5	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki sit 1st in I Liga (11 points from 5 matches) and Warta Poznań sit 6th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	5	3	2	0	8	3	11
6	Warta Poznań	5	3	0	2	10	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań?: The Footlab model makes Warta Poznań the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Where and when is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań played?: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Znicza (MZOS), in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.