Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń Siedlce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Pogoń Siedlce (1,759) and Puszcza Niepołomice (1,836).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pogoń Siedlce have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Puszcza Niepołomice have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lechia Gdansk(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nieciecza(home) | 1-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Arka Gdynia(away) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Odra Opole(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pogoń Siedlce win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Puszcza Niepołomice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice 3-0 Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Pogoń Siedlce 0-0 Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogoń Siedlce on Mar 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pogoń Siedlce score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Puszcza Niepołomice score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Siedlce | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pogoń Siedlce sit 14th in I Liga (5 points from 5 matches) and Puszcza Niepołomice sit 17th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pogoń Siedlce | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| 17 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
- The Footlab model makes Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Pogoń Siedlce.
- Where and when is Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice played?
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion ROSRRiT, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 5, 2026Miedz LegnicavsChrobry Głogów
- Sep 5, 2026Arka GdyniavsŁKS Łódź
- Sep 5, 2026NiecieczavsLechia Gdansk
- Sep 5, 2026Stal MielecvsOdra Opole
- Sep 5, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsUnia Skierniewice
- Sep 5, 2026Stal RzeszówvsPolonia Warszawa
- Sep 5, 2026Polonia BytomvsPodbeskidzie
- Sep 5, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsWarta Poznań