Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?

Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Kanseki Stadium, Utsunomiya

Tochigi SC

Matsumoto Yamaga

The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Tochigi SC (1,729) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).

Tochigi SC win41 %

Draw27 %

Matsumoto Yamaga win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tochigi SC have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tochigi SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Urayasu(home)	2-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(away)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	3-2	J3 League
Jun 7, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-1	J2/J3 League

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tochigi SC win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 28, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Tochigi SC	J3 League
Jun 28, 2025	Tochigi SC 3-1 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Oct 10, 2021	Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Tochigi SC	J2 League
May 23, 2021	Tochigi SC 3-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Nov 4, 2020	Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Tochigi SC	J2 League
Sep 13, 2020	Tochigi SC 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Tochigi SC on Sep 28, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Tochigi SC score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Tochigi SC	1.3	1.1	5	8/15	7/15
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tochigi SC sit 8th in J3 League (5 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga?: The Footlab model makes Tochigi SC the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
Where and when is Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?: Tochigi SC vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on September 26, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Kanseki Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.