TOGB vs Katwijk: prediction and stats
KNVB Beker1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel, Berkel en Rodenrijs
The Footlab model makes Katwijk the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 25% for TOGB. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win TOGB vs Katwijk?
Katwijk starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,903 vs 1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, TOGB have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Katwijk have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Poortugaal(home) | 1-3 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UNA(away) | 1-1 | Derde Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Lisse(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Noordwijk(away) | 2-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| May 16, 2026 | Groene Ster(home) | 5-1 | Derde Divisie - Sunday |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hoek(home) | 1-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spakenburg(away) | 0-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 23, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam II(home) | 4-1 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 16, 2026 | Spakenburg(away) | 1-2 | Tweede Divisie |
| May 9, 2026 | Koninklijke HFC(home) | 4-0 | Tweede Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 TOGB win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Katwijk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2023 | Katwijk 1-2 TOGB | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
TOGB score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Katwijk score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOGB | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Katwijk | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for TOGB vs Katwijk?
- The Footlab model makes Katwijk the favourite at 54%, against 21% for a draw and 25% for TOGB.
- Where and when is TOGB vs Katwijk played?
- TOGB vs Katwijk is played on September 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Het Hoge Land Veld 1 Berkel, in the KNVB Beker.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.