Togo vs Algeria: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade de Kégué, Lomé
The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Togo. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Togo vs Algeria?
Algeria starts as the favourite with a 275-point Elo edge (1,770 vs 1,494).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Togo have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Algeria have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Benin(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Central African Republic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Guinea(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 13, 2025 | South Sudan(away) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Austria(home) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Jordan(away) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 11, 2026 | Bolivia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Togo win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Algeria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2024 | Togo 0-1 Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Algeria 5-1 Togo | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2018 | Togo 1-4 Algeria | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jun 11, 2017 | Algeria 1-0 Togo | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Togo score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Algeria score 2.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Algeria | 2.2 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Togo sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Algeria sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Togo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Togo vs Algeria?
- The Footlab model makes Algeria the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Togo.
- Where and when is Togo vs Algeria played?
- Togo vs Algeria is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de Kégué, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.