Torquay vs Chesham United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 18Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Plainmoor Ground, Torquay, Devon
The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Chesham United. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torquay vs Chesham United?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Torquay (1,872) and Chesham United (1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torquay have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Chesham United have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dagenham & Redbridge(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walton & Hersham(home) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 0-3 | National League - South |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Chertsey Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Torquay win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Chesham United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Torquay 2-1 Chesham United | National League - South |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Chesham United 1-0 Torquay | National League - South |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Torquay 1-2 Chesham United | National League - South |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Chesham United 2-3 Torquay | National League - South |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Chesham United 0-1 Torquay | FA Trophy |
| Dec 15, 2015 | Chesham United 0-2 Torquay | FA Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Torquay vs Chesham United on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Torquay score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chesham United score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Chesham United | 1.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Torquay sit 13th in National League - South (5 points from 4 matches) and Chesham United sit 18th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Torquay | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 18 | Chesham United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torquay vs Chesham United?
- The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Chesham United.
- Where and when is Torquay vs Chesham United played?
- Torquay vs Chesham United is played on November 24, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Plainmoor Ground, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 23, 2026Chelmsford CityvsMaidstone Utd
- Nov 24, 2026Dagenham & RedbridgevsTonbridge Angels
- Nov 24, 2026Ebbsfleet UnitedvsBillericay Town
- Nov 24, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsDover
- Nov 24, 2026Slough TownvsFarnborough
- Nov 24, 2026Weston-super-MarevsWalton & Hersham
- Nov 24, 2026Folkestone InvictavsDorking Wanderers
- Nov 24, 2026HorshamvsTruro City