Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 24Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Treowen Stars. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,739 vs 1,587).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Treowen Stars
Not enough data to predict the Treowen Stars lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 1-6 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Treowen Stars wins, 0 draws, 3 Caerau (Ely) wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 3-0 Treowen Stars | FAW Championship |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Treowen Stars 0-5 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Treowen Stars on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Treowen Stars score 1.8 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treowen Stars | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Treowen Stars sit 9th in FAW Championship (13 points from 10 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
A question about Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 20% for a draw and 25% for Treowen Stars.
- Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 19, 2027Pontypridd TownvsNewport City
- Feb 20, 2027Llantwit MajorvsAfan Lido
- Feb 20, 2027Cardiff DraconiansvsYnyshir Albions
- Feb 20, 2027Baglan Dragonsvsllanelli AFC
- Feb 20, 2027Pontardawe TownvsSwansea University
- Feb 20, 2027Trethomas BluebirdsvsCarmarthen Town
- Feb 20, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsCaerphilly Athletic