Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) played?

Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 24Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)

Treowen Stars

Caerau (Ely)

The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Treowen Stars. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)?

A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Treowen Stars (1,581) and Caerau (Ely) (1,656).

Treowen Stars win36 %

Draw21 %

Caerau (Ely) win43 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Treowen Stars have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Treowen Stars
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(home)	3-0	FAW Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Aberystwyth Town(away)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Pontypridd Town(home)	2-3	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Carmarthen Town(home)	4-1	FAW Championship

Caerau (Ely)
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Swansea University(home)	1-5	FAW Championship
Aug 14, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	1-1	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Carmarthen Town(away)	3-4	FAW Championship
Jul 25, 2026	Barnstaple Town(home)	4-4	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Treowen Stars win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Caerau (Ely) win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 10, 2026	Caerau (Ely) 3-0 Treowen Stars	FAW Championship
Sep 27, 2025	Treowen Stars 0-5 Caerau (Ely)	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs Treowen Stars on Mar 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Treowen Stars score 2.0 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Treowen Stars	2.0	2.2	1	11/15	13/15
Caerau (Ely)	2.1	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Treowen Stars sit 3rd in FAW Championship (9 points from 4 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 11th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Treowen Stars	4	3	0	1	11	6	9
11	Caerau (Ely)	4	1	1	2	9	12	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely)?: The Footlab model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 43%, against 21% for a draw and 36% for Treowen Stars.
Where and when is Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) played?: Treowen Stars vs Caerau (Ely) is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.