Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 24Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Park Avenue, Aberystwyth, Ceredigion
The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Caerphilly Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aberystwyth Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Aberystwyth Town starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,672 vs 1,561).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aberystwyth Town
Not enough data to predict the Aberystwyth Town lineup.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aberystwyth Town have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Caerphilly Athletic have 4, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 4-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Aberystwyth Town win, 0 draws, 0 Caerphilly Athletic wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic 2-3 Aberystwyth Town | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aberystwyth Town score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aberystwyth Town sit 3rd in FAW Championship (19 points from 9 matches) and Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Aberystwyth Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 19 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aberystwyth Town the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Caerphilly Athletic.
- Where and when is Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic played?
- Aberystwyth Town vs Caerphilly Athletic is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Park Avenue, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.