UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, Santa Marta de Tormes
The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cultural Leonesa II. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate UD Santa Marta (1,807) and Cultural Leonesa II (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD Santa Marta have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Cultural Leonesa II have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 16, 2026 | Guijuelo(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 10, 2026 | Almazán(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Mansillés(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 2, 2026 | Atlético Tordesillas(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Numancia II(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 UD Santa Marta win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Cultural Leonesa II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II 1-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 2-0 Cultural Leonesa II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 23, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 0-1 Cultural Leonesa II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Cultural Leonesa II 4-3 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UD Santa Marta 0-0 Cultural Leonesa II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Cultural Leonesa II 0-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: Cultural Leonesa II vs UD Santa Marta on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cultural Leonesa II score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD Santa Marta | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Cultural Leonesa II | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD Santa Marta sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (62 points from 34 matches) and Cultural Leonesa II sit 10th (42 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53 | 31 | 62 |
| 10 | Cultural Leonesa II | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 38 | 43 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II?
- The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cultural Leonesa II.
- Where and when is UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II played?
- UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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