Where and when is Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino played?

Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, Bembibre

Bembibre

La Virgen del Camino

The Footlab model makes Bembibre the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for La Virgen del Camino. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?

A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Bembibre (1,653) and La Virgen del Camino (1,708).

Bembibre win43 %

Draw27 %

La Virgen del Camino win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bembibre have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; La Virgen del Camino have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bembibre
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Palencia CF(away)	1-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Becerril Campos(home)	4-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Arandina(away)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	Mirandés II(away)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	UD Santa Marta(home)	2-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

La Virgen del Camino
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Mojados(away)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2026	Almazán(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 25, 2026	Palencia CF(away)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	Becerril Campos(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	Arandina(away)	1-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bembibre win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 La Virgen del Camino win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 5, 2026	La Virgen del Camino 3-1 Bembibre	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 23, 2025	Bembibre 1-2 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 12, 2025	La Virgen del Camino 0-0 Bembibre	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 24, 2024	Bembibre 0-0 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2024	La Virgen del Camino 1-1 Bembibre	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Jan 7, 2024	Bembibre 0-1 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: La Virgen del Camino vs Bembibre on Apr 5, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bembibre score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; La Virgen del Camino score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bembibre	1.3	1.6	5	9/15	8/15
La Virgen del Camino	0.9	1.4	4	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bembibre sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (34 points from 34 matches) and La Virgen del Camino sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	La Virgen del Camino	34	12	8	14	31	37	44
14	Bembibre	34	8	10	16	38	52	34

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino?: The Footlab model makes Bembibre the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for La Virgen del Camino.
Where and when is Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino played?: Bembibre vs La Virgen del Camino is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.