Where and when is Turégano vs Arandina played?

Turégano vs Arandina is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Turégano vs Arandina: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Turégano

Arandina

The Footlab model makes Turégano the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Turégano vs Arandina?

A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Turégano (1,735) and Arandina (1,713).

Turégano win46 %

Draw28 %

Arandina win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Turégano have 1 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Arandina have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Turégano
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Nov 1, 2023	Celta Vigo(home)	0-4	Copa del Rey
Oct 12, 2023	Santurtzi(home)	3-1	Copa del Rey
Oct 19, 2022	Velarde(away)	0-1	Copa del Rey

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

How many goals should we expect?

Turégano score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 3; Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Turégano	1.0	2.0	0	1/3	2/3
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15

Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Turégano vs Arandina?: The Footlab model makes Turégano the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Arandina.
Where and when is Turégano vs Arandina played?: Turégano vs Arandina is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.