União Montemor vs Juventude Évora: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio 1º de Maio, Montemor-o-Novo
The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for União Montemor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win União Montemor vs Juventude Évora?
Juventude Évora starts as the favourite with a 205-point Elo edge (1,888 vs 1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, União Montemor have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Juventude Évora have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | Louletano(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Feb 20, 2022 | FC Barreirense(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Lagos(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Feb 6, 2022 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Jan 29, 2022 | Olhanense(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcochetense(home) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vasco da Gama Vidigueira(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Moncarapachense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Comércio Indústria(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FC Serpa(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 União Montemor win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Juventude Évora win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2022 | União Montemor 0-2 Juventude Évora | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Juventude Évora 0-0 União Montemor | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group F |
Last archived meeting: União Montemor vs Juventude Évora on Jan 9, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
União Montemor score 0.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Juventude Évora score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| União Montemor | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Juventude Évora | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for União Montemor vs Juventude Évora?
- The Footlab model makes Juventude Évora the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for União Montemor.
- Where and when is União Montemor vs Juventude Évora played?
- União Montemor vs Juventude Évora is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio 1º de Maio, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.