Varzim vs Leça: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 17Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Leça. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Leça?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Varzim (1,948) and Leça (1,971).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Leça have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Pacos Ferreira(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-2 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Liga 3 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leça score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Leça | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 1st in Liga 3 (9 points from 3 matches) and Leça sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varzim | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Leça | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Leça?
- The Footlab model makes Varzim the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Leça.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Leça played?
- Varzim vs Leça is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.