Varzim vs Leça: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 17Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Varzim. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leça wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,382 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Leça?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Varzim (2,003) and Leça (2,076).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varzim vs Leça
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varzim
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pereira
- 7Pedro Matos
- 11D. Benchi
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 3P. Nuno
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 49P. Costa
Leça
4-3-3- 10Nicolas
- 11B. Mesquita
- 9M. Fortes
- 20Rodrigo Ferreira
- 33Diogo Pereira
- 21Carlos Avelino
- 23D. Ribeiro
- 41Cássio Scheid
- 22A. Coutinho
- 4Fábio Baldé
- 1M. Paiva
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Leça have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Trofense(away) | 4-1 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fafe(home) | 0-3 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Leça score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Leça | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 6th in Liga 3 (9 points from 6 matches) and Leça sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
A question about Varzim vs Leça?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Leça?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leça the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Varzim.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Leça played?
- Varzim vs Leça is played on January 24, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.