Varzim vs Trofense: prediction and stats
Liga 3Regular Season - 10Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Varzim Sport Club, Póvoa de Varzim
The Footlab AI model makes Varzim the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Trofense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varzim wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Varzim vs Trofense?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Varzim (1,997) and Trofense (1,924).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Varzim vs Trofense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Varzim
4-3-3- 9Rodrigo Pereira
- 7Pedro Matos
- 11D. Benchi
- 27Martim Boloto
- 55D. Rebelo
- 10M. Moreno Tavares Cunha
- 26Rúben Fernandes
- 19A. Morais Guedes
- 3P. Nuno
- 4Kauã Oliveira
- 49P. Costa
Trofense
4-3-3- 11Kiki
- 30Feliz Vaz
- 89Nuninho
- 65A. Gomes
- 22Matheus Claudino
- 6S. Ufala
- 21T. Oliveira
- 50T. Silva
- 3Lucca Carvalho
- 7J. Oliveira
- 31Manuel Baldé
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:08 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Varzim have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Trofense have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | São João Ver(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Vianense(home) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Paredes(home) | 0-1 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Trofense(home) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fafe(away) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Leça(home) | 1-4 | Liga 3 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Guimaraes B(away) | 0-0 | Liga 3 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Varzim(away) | 1-5 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 22, 2026 | São João Ver(home) | 1-0 | Liga 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Varzim wins, 0 draws, 2 Trofense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Varzim 5-1 Trofense | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trofense 0-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trofense 0-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Varzim 2-0 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Varzim 0-1 Trofense | Liga 3 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Trofense 2-1 Varzim | Liga 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Varzim score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Trofense score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varzim | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Trofense | 0.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Varzim sit 6th in Liga 3 (9 points from 6 matches) and Trofense sit 9th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
A question about Varzim vs Trofense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Varzim vs Trofense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varzim the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Trofense.
- Where and when is Varzim vs Trofense played?
- Varzim vs Trofense is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Varzim Sport Club, in the Liga 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.