Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 10Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Amalfitani, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Tigre the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Velez Sarsfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre?
A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Velez Sarsfield (1,949) and Tigre (1,880).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velez Sarsfield have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Tigre have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Tigre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Tigre 1-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Velez Sarsfield 2-1 Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 23, 2025 | Tigre 3-0 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Velez Sarsfield 1-0 Tigre | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Tigre | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 29, 2023 | Tigre 0-0 Velez Sarsfield | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Tigre vs Velez Sarsfield on Mar 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tigre score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Tigre | 1.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd in Liga Profesional Argentina (28 points from 16 matches) and Tigre sit 10th (20 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 8 | Tigre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Tigre | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre?
- The Footlab model makes Tigre the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Velez Sarsfield.
- Where and when is Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre played?
- Velez Sarsfield vs Tigre is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Amalfitani, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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