Virtus vs Libertas: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva, Acquaviva
The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for Libertas. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus vs Libertas?
Virtus is a heavy favourite: 1,489 Elo points against 1,037 — a 452-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Libertas have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | Dila(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Dila(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 16, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
| May 12, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| May 9, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 2-1 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Virtus(home) | 0-9 | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Tre Penne(home) | 1-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tre Fiori(away) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(home) | 1-0 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Virtus win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Libertas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Libertas 0-9 Virtus | Campionato |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Virtus 3-1 Libertas | Campionato |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Libertas 1-3 Virtus | Coppa Titano |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Virtus 3-0 Libertas | Coppa Titano |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Libertas 0-2 Virtus | Campionato |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Virtus 5-2 Libertas | Campionato |
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Libertas score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Libertas | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Virtus sit 2nd in Campionato (72 points from 30 matches) and Libertas sit 10th (35 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Virtus | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 76 | 20 | 72 |
| 10 | Libertas | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 63 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus vs Libertas?
- The Footlab model makes Virtus the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for Libertas.
- Where and when is Virtus vs Libertas played?
- Virtus vs Libertas is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.