Cailungo vs Tre Penne: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore, Borgo Maggiore
The Footlab model makes Tre Penne the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Cailungo. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cailungo vs Tre Penne?
Tre Penne is a heavy favourite: 1,380 Elo points against 863 — a 517-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cailungo have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Tre Penne have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Marino Academy(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Virtus(home) | 1-6 | Campionato |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Tre Penne(away) | 1-6 | Campionato |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Pennarossa(home) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 1-2 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 3-1 | Campionato |
| May 12, 2026 | La Fiorita(home) | 0-1 | Campionato |
| May 9, 2026 | La Fiorita(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| May 6, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| May 3, 2026 | Cosmos(home) | 0-0 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cailungo win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Tre Penne win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Tre Penne 6-1 Cailungo | Campionato |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Cailungo 0-2 Tre Penne | Campionato |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Tre Penne 2-1 Cailungo | Campionato |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Tre Penne 4-1 Cailungo | Coppa Titano |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Cailungo 2-2 Tre Penne | Campionato |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Cailungo 0-6 Tre Penne | Coppa Titano |
Last archived meeting: Tre Penne vs Cailungo on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cailungo score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tre Penne score 2.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cailungo | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Tre Penne | 2.1 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cailungo sit 15th in Campionato (11 points from 30 matches) and Tre Penne sit 3rd (70 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tre Penne | 30 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 71 | 18 | 70 |
| 15 | Cailungo | 30 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 71 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cailungo vs Tre Penne?
- The Footlab model makes Tre Penne the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 4% for Cailungo.
- Where and when is Cailungo vs Tre Penne played?
- Cailungo vs Tre Penne is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.