Murata vs San Giovanni: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, Città di San Marino
The Footlab model makes San Giovanni the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Murata. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Murata vs San Giovanni?
San Giovanni starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (1,127 vs 912).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Murata have 0 wins, 0 draws and 15 defeats; San Giovanni have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 2-5 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fiorentino(home) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Virtus(away) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tre Fiori(home) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Pennarossa(away) | 0-2 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tre Penne(away) | 0-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 0-2 | Campionato |
| Apr 11, 2026 | San Marino Academy(home) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 7, 2026 | La Fiorita(away) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Faetano(home) | 2-0 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Murata win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 San Giovanni win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | San Giovanni 2-1 Murata | Campionato |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Murata 0-0 San Giovanni | Campionato |
| Apr 5, 2025 | San Giovanni 0-0 Murata | Campionato |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Murata 1-1 San Giovanni | Campionato |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Murata 0-1 San Giovanni | Campionato |
| Oct 4, 2023 | San Giovanni 0-1 Murata | Campionato |
Last archived meeting: San Giovanni vs Murata on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Murata score 0.7 and concede 3.4 goals per match over their last 15; San Giovanni score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murata | 0.7 | 3.4 | 0 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| San Giovanni | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Murata sit 16th in Campionato (-2 points from 30 matches) and San Giovanni sit 12th (31 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | San Giovanni | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 43 | 31 |
| 16 | Murata | 30 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 83 | -2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Murata vs San Giovanni?
- The Footlab model makes San Giovanni the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Murata.
- Where and when is Murata vs San Giovanni played?
- Murata vs San Giovanni is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.