Ajax vs Groningen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Groningen. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs Groningen?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (2,100 vs 1,947).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ajax vs Groningen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Groningen
4-2-3-1- 9B. Willumsson
- 24P. Clement
- 8T. de Jonge
- 26T. van Bergen
- 17D. van der Werff
- 11J. Ondrejka
- 3T. Blokzijl
- 14J. Schreuders
- 5M. Rente
- 4M. Csinger
- 1E. Vaessen
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Groningen have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Twente(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Ajax wins, 1 draw, 1 Groningen win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Ajax 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Groningen 3-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Ajax 2-0 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 14, 2025 | Groningen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Ajax 3-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| May 16, 2023 | Groningen 2-3 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Groningen score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Groningen | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 5th in Eredivisie (15 points from 8 matches) and Groningen sit 6th (14 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
A question about Ajax vs Groningen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Groningen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for Groningen.
- Where and when is Ajax vs Groningen played?
- Ajax vs Groningen is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.