Where and when is Xerez vs Estepona played?

Xerez vs Estepona is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Xerez vs Estepona: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera

Xerez

Estepona

The Footlab model makes Xerez the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Estepona. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Xerez vs Estepona?

A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Xerez (1,927) and Estepona (1,927).

Xerez win44 %

Draw31 %

Estepona win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xerez have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Estepona have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Xerez
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Portuense(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Conquense(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 9, 2026	Conquense(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Ucam Murcia(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Xerez Deportivo(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Estepona
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	Real Madrid III(home)	3-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Real Madrid III(away)	2-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Yeclano(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 26, 2026	Águilas(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Apr 19, 2026	Linares Deportivo(away)	3-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Xerez win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Estepona win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 8, 2026	Estepona 0-0 Xerez	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 28, 2025	Xerez 0-1 Estepona	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Jan 26, 2025	Estepona 1-1 Xerez	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 14, 2024	Xerez 0-1 Estepona	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Estepona vs Xerez on Feb 8, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Xerez score 0.7 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estepona score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Xerez	0.7	0.5	8	4/15	2/15
Estepona	1.7	0.9	4	10/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Xerez sit 4th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (59 points from 34 matches) and Estepona sit 13th (44 points from 34 matches).

2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Xerez	34	17	8	9	32	24	59
13	Estepona	34	12	8	14	40	44	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Xerez vs Estepona?: The Footlab model makes Xerez the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Estepona.
Where and when is Xerez vs Estepona played?: Xerez vs Estepona is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.