Match

Xerez vs Estepona: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera

XerezEstepona

The Footlab AI model makes Xerez the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Estepona. The most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Xerez vs Estepona?

A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Xerez (1,931) and Estepona (1,942).

40%32%28%
Xerez winDrawEstepona win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Xerez vs Estepona

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Xerez

Not enough data to predict the Xerez lineup.

Estepona

4-3-3
  1. 20Daniel Sancho
  2. 10Ale Conteras
  3. 16D. Ballarin
  1. 15Javi Duarte
  2. 6J. Aguilera
  3. 17S. Baradji
  1. 26A. Gonzalez
  2. 3A. Candelas
  3. 5Titi Fernández
  4. 22José Caro
  1. 1J. Ruiz

Computed on October 19, 2026 at 06:05 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xerez have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Estepona have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Xerez
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Ciudad de Lucena(home)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 10, 2026Real Betis II(away)1-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 4, 2026Tenerife II(home)2-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Recreativo Huelva(away)0-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 20, 2026Don Benito(home)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Estepona
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Marbella(away)0-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 11, 2026Atlético Central(home)3-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Oct 3, 2026Don Benito(home)3-1Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 27, 2026Tenerife II(away)1-2Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 19, 2026Puente Genil(away)2-0Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Xerez wins, 3 draws, 2 Estepona wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 5, 2026Estepona 0-0 XerezSegunda División RFEF - Group 4
Feb 8, 2026Estepona 0-0 XerezSegunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 28, 2025Xerez 0-1 EsteponaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4
Jan 26, 2025Estepona 1-1 XerezSegunda División RFEF - Group 4
Sep 14, 2024Xerez 0-1 EsteponaSegunda División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Estepona vs Xerez on Sep 5, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Xerez score 0.5 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Estepona score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Xerez0.50.584/152/15
Estepona1.71.2411/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Xerez sit 13th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 6 matches) and Estepona sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Estepona732210911
13Xerez6132456

A question about Xerez vs Estepona?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Xerez vs Estepona?
The Footlab AI model makes Xerez the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Estepona.
Where and when is Xerez vs Estepona played?
Xerez vs Estepona is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Xerez and Estepona

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