Rochdale vs Accrington ST: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (1,890 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Accrington ST have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Rochdale win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Accrington ST win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2022 | Accrington ST 3-3 Rochdale | EFL Trophy |
| Apr 17, 2021 | Rochdale 3-1 Accrington ST | League One |
| Oct 10, 2020 | Accrington ST 2-1 Rochdale | League One |
| Jan 1, 2020 | Accrington ST 1-2 Rochdale | League One |
| Oct 12, 2019 | Rochdale 2-1 Accrington ST | League One |
| Apr 9, 2019 | Accrington ST 0-1 Rochdale | League One |
Last archived meeting: Accrington ST vs Rochdale on Aug 30, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 23rd in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Accrington ST sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Accrington ST?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Accrington ST played?
- Rochdale vs Accrington ST is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.