Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Color Line Stadion, Ålesund
The Footlab AI model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Aalesund. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sarpsborg 08 FF wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Aalesund (1,942) and Sarpsborg 08 FF (1,949).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aalesund
5-3-2- 27H. M. Reed
- 8I. Skotheim
- 18E. Hagen
- 21M. Christensen
- 15E. Osenbroch
- 14U. Charles
- 2M. Andresen
- 7K. Nessø
- 28D. Mbacke
- 3Ó. Guðmundsson
- 1Luca Podlech
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4-4-2- 11D. Karlsbakk
- 22V. Halvorsen
- 6A. Sher
- 8S. Christiansen
- 77O. Skarsem
- 10S. Sørli
- 12C. Niyukuri
- 21A. Hiim
- 2M. Lode
- 4B. Utvik
- 87L. Øy
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aalesund have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Sarpsborg 08 FF have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Førde(away) | 4-3 | NM Cupen |
| Sep 13, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Start(home) | 2-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Viking(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Follo(away) | 2-0 | NM Cupen |
| Sep 18, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(home) | 1-3 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fredrikstad(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Valerenga(home) | 2-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Tromso(away) | 0-0 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aalesund wins, 0 draws, 4 Sarpsborg 08 FF wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2023 | Aalesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| May 29, 2023 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-1 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Aalesund 1-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| May 22, 2022 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
| Sep 13, 2020 | Aalesund 0-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2020 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Aalesund | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF on Oct 22, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Aalesund score 2.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sarpsborg 08 FF score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | 2.7 | 2.1 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aalesund sit 14th in Eliteserien (21 points from 21 matches) and Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 9th (25 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 25 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 46 | 21 |
A question about Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Aalesund.
- Where and when is Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF played?
- Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Color Line Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.