Fredrikstad vs Tromso: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Fredrikstad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Tromso starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,961).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fredrikstad have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Tromso have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eidsvold IF(away) | 7-1 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Start(away) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sandefjord(home) | 1-0 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rosenborg(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ulfstind(away) | 5-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Molde(away) | 2-3 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 13, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Fredrikstad win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Tromso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Tromso 0-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Fredrikstad 0-1 Tromso | Eliteserien |
| May 29, 2024 | Tromso 3-0 Fredrikstad | Eliteserien |
| May 25, 2024 | Fredrikstad 0-0 Tromso | Eliteserien |
Last archived meeting: Tromso vs Fredrikstad on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fredrikstad score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tromso score 2.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrikstad | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tromso | 2.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fredrikstad sit 8th in Eliteserien (23 points from 17 matches) and Tromso sit 3rd (34 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 34 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
- The Footlab model makes Tromso the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Fredrikstad.
- Where and when is Fredrikstad vs Tromso played?
- Fredrikstad vs Tromso is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.