Lillestrom vs Molde: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller
The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Molde. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Molde?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Lillestrom (2,026) and Molde (1,995).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lillestrom have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Molde have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 1-1 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rosenborg(home) | 0-2 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(away) | 0-4 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Viking(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Midsund(away) | 11-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tromso(home) | 3-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(away) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 FF(home) | 3-3 | Eliteserien |
| Jul 26, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(away) | 4-2 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lillestrom win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Molde win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Molde 0-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Lillestrom 1-2 Molde | NM Cupen |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Lillestrom 1-2 Molde | Eliteserien |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Molde 3-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Molde 4-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Lillestrom 2-1 Molde | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Lillestrom score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Molde score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Molde | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lillestrom sit 5th in Eliteserien (26 points from 17 matches) and Molde sit 4th (27 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 27 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lillestrom vs Molde?
- The Footlab model makes Lillestrom the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Molde.
- Where and when is Lillestrom vs Molde played?
- Lillestrom vs Molde is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Åråsen Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.