Lillestrom vs Molde: prediction and stats
EliteserienRegular Season - 23Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC)Åråsen Stadion, Kjeller
The Footlab AI model makes Molde the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Lillestrom. The most likely score is 1-1. If Molde wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Molde?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Lillestrom (2,014) and Molde (2,020).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lillestrom vs Molde
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lillestrom
4-1-4-1- 8F. Gulbrandsen
- 20Vá
- 14G. Nyheim
- 17E. Kitolano
- 22D. Bassi
- 29Y. Ibrahimaj
- 11F. Elkær
- 2L. Ranger
- 28R. Gabrielsen
- 47S. Kristiansen
- 12P. Dahlberg
Molde
4-2-3-1- 9J. Abdulai
- 10E. Breivik
- 30D. Daga
- 23S. Granaas
- 21O. Spiten-Nysæter
- 24Trent Toure Kone Doherty
- 26S. Kabini
- 6N. Ødegård
- 25M. Linnes
- 33B. Risa
- 22A. Posiadała
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lillestrom have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Molde have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Bærum(away) | 5-1 | NM Cupen |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Viking(away) | 0-3 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Valerenga(home) | 2-0 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brann(away) | 2-1 | Eliteserien |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Kristiansund BK(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aalesund(home) | 1-2 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Trygg/Lade(away) | 5-0 | NM Cupen |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Ham-Kam(away) | 5-1 | Eliteserien |
| Sep 6, 2026 | KFUM Oslo(home) | 2-0 | Eliteserien |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lillestrom wins, 0 draws, 4 Molde wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Molde 0-1 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Lillestrom 1-2 Molde | NM Cupen |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Lillestrom 1-2 Molde | Eliteserien |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Molde 3-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Molde 4-0 Lillestrom | Eliteserien |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Lillestrom 2-1 Molde | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Lillestrom score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Molde score 3.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Molde | 3.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 11/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lillestrom sit 6th in Eliteserien (32 points from 21 matches) and Molde sit 4th (36 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 44 | 32 | 36 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 32 |
A question about Lillestrom vs Molde?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lillestrom vs Molde?
- The Footlab AI model makes Molde the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Lillestrom.
- Where and when is Lillestrom vs Molde played?
- Lillestrom vs Molde is played on October 11, 2026 at 05:15 PM (UTC) at Åråsen Stadion, in the Eliteserien.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.