Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Aberystwyth Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,506) and Aberystwyth Town (1,577).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Aberystwyth Town have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Caldicot Town(home) | 1-3 | Welsh Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 5-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 5-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Cwmbran Celtic(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 8; Aberystwyth Town score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 5/8 | 6/8 |
| Aberystwyth Town | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Aberystwyth Town sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 |
| 12 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town?
- The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Aberystwyth Town.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Aberystwyth Town is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.