Utrecht vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab AI model makes Utrecht the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Willem II. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Willem II?
Utrecht starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,978 vs 1,798).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Utrecht vs Willem II
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Utrecht
3-4-3- 11Ángel Alarcón
- 9Artem Stepanov
- 15A. Blake
- 92A. Zagré
- 20D. de Wit
- 34D. van den Berg
- 23N. Vesterlund
- 2S. Horemans
- 3M. Didden
- 5N. Panagiotou
- 1V. Barkas
Willem II
4-2-3-1- 9D. Haen
- 7J. Slory
- 19Uriel van Aalst
- 6C. Twigt
- 52T. Vilhena
- 50E. Gürbüz
- 24N. Tjoe-A-On
- 3F. Stam
- 5H. ter Avest
- 23M. Dekker
- 26M. Delanghe
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 09:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Willem II have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-6 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(away) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Utrecht wins, 0 draws, 1 Willem II win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Willem II 2-3 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Utrecht 3-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| May 15, 2022 | Willem II 3-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Utrecht 5-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| May 1, 2021 | Utrecht 3-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Feb 19, 2021 | Willem II 0-6 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Willem II | 1.2 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 15th in Eredivisie (5 points from 7 matches) and Willem II sit 18th (2 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 5 |
| 18 | Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 2 |
A question about Utrecht vs Willem II?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Willem II?
- The Footlab AI model makes Utrecht the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Willem II played?
- Utrecht vs Willem II is played on October 11, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.