Utrecht vs Willem II: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Willem II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Willem II?
Utrecht starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (1,995 vs 1,820).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Willem II have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(away) | 1-4 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | KV Mechelen(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Utrecht win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Willem II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2025 | Willem II 2-3 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Utrecht 3-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| May 15, 2022 | Willem II 3-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Oct 31, 2021 | Utrecht 5-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| May 1, 2021 | Utrecht 3-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Feb 19, 2021 | Willem II 0-6 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Willem II score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Willem II | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 15th in Eredivisie (1 points from 3 matches) and Willem II sit 16th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Willem II?
- The Footlab model makes Utrecht the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Willem II played?
- Utrecht vs Willem II is played on October 11, 2026 at 10:15 AM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.