PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 78%, against 12% for a draw and 10% for Heerenveen. The most likely score is 3-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (2,226 vs 1,985).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 19E. Bajraktarevic
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 10P. Wanner
- 5I. Perišić
- 7R. van Bommel
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 6R. Flamingo
- 32M. Kovář
Known absences
A. NagaloOut · Injured
A. PléaOut · Injured
J. SchoutenOut · Knee injury- K. SildilliaOut · Injured
- L. GeertruidaOut · Injured
R. PepiOut · Injured- S. LammersOut · Lacking Match Fitness
- S. OuaissaOut · Muscle injury
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1- 9D. Vente
- 20J. Trenskow
- 7M. Rivera
- 36N. Courtens
- 10R. Meerveld
- 14L. Smans
- 4S. Kersten
- 19V. Zagaritis
- 3M. Willemsen
- 45O. Braude
- 22B. Klaverboer
Known absences
- D. ProperOut · Injured
- M. EgbringOut · Injured
- M. HilgersOut · Knee injury
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Heerenveen have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 6-1 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar(home) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 22, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 PSV Eindhoven wins, 0 draws, 1 Heerenveen win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 3-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Feb 4, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Heerenveen | KNVB Beker |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Heerenveen 0-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-1 Heerenveen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Heerenveen 1-0 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Apr 25, 2024 | Heerenveen 0-8 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 3.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Heerenveen score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| Heerenveen | 2.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 3rd in Eredivisie (16 points from 7 matches) and Heerenveen sit 10th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 16 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
A question about PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen?
- The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 78%, against 12% for a draw and 10% for Heerenveen.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Heerenveen is played on October 9, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.