Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam
The Footlab model makes Feyenoord the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for AZ Alkmaar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Feyenoord (2,111) and AZ Alkmaar (2,161).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Feyenoord have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 16, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atalanta(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Feyenoord win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 AZ Alkmaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Sep 21, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 3-3 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Apr 5, 2025 | AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Feyenoord 3-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Feb 7, 2024 | Feyenoord 2-0 AZ Alkmaar | KNVB Beker |
| Feb 4, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Feyenoord score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 2.3 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Feyenoord sit 6th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Feyenoord | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab model makes Feyenoord the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for AZ Alkmaar.
- Where and when is Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Feijenoord, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.