Alianza Lima vs Universitario: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Universitario. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Alianza Lima (1,818) and Universitario (1,807).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Lima have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Universitario have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Alianza Lima win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Universitario win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Universitario 1-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Universitario 0-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Alianza Lima 1-1 Universitario | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Universitario 2-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Alianza Lima 0-1 Universitario | Primera División |
| Nov 9, 2023 | Alianza Lima 0-2 Universitario | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universitario vs Alianza Lima on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Lima sit 1st in Primera División (40 points from 17 matches) and Universitario sit 4th (29 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Universitario | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 7 | Universitario | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Lima vs Universitario?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Universitario.
- Where and when is Alianza Lima vs Universitario played?
- Alianza Lima vs Universitario is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026UTC CajamarcavsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 12, 2026Sport BoysvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Sep 12, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsSport Huancayo
- Sep 12, 2026Atletico GrauvsAlianza Atletico
- Sep 12, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 12, 2026CuscovsFBC Melgar
- Sep 12, 2026ADTvsCienciano
- Sep 12, 2026UCV MoqueguavsSporting Cristal