Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Universitario. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Deportivo Garcilaso (1,711) and Universitario (1,808).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Garcilaso have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Universitario have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Universitario win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Universitario 4-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Universitario 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 0-1 Universitario | Primera División |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Universitario 3-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 Universitario | Primera División |
| Aug 20, 2023 | Universitario 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Universitario vs Deportivo Garcilaso on Apr 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Universitario score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Universitario | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th in Primera División (26 points from 17 matches) and Universitario sit 4th (29 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Universitario | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Universitario | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 22 | 42 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Universitario | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 15 | 29 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 8 | Universitario | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Garcilaso the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Universitario.
- Where and when is Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario played?
- Deportivo Garcilaso vs Universitario is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Sporting CristalvsAtletico Grau
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza LimavsADT
- Sep 19, 2026FBC MelgarvsSport Boys
- Sep 19, 2026Sport HuancayovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza AtleticovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 19, 2026CiencianovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 19, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 19, 2026FC CajamarcavsCusco