Alianza Lima vs ADT: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for ADT. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Lima vs ADT?
Alianza Lima starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (1,818 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Lima have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; ADT have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBC Melgar(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 1-5 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alianza Lima win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 ADT win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | ADT 0-1 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Alianza Lima 3-1 ADT | Primera División |
| Mar 29, 2025 | ADT 3-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Alianza Lima 0-0 ADT | Primera División |
| Mar 1, 2024 | ADT 2-0 Alianza Lima | Primera División |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Alianza Lima 0-0 ADT | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; ADT score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| ADT | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Lima sit 1st in Primera División (40 points from 17 matches) and ADT sit 10th (20 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 17 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 40 |
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 39 | 13 | 51 |
| 2 | Alianza Lima | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 10 | ADT | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 21 | 20 |
| 16 | ADT | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 22 |
| 18 | ADT | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 18 | ADT | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Lima vs ADT?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for ADT.
- Where and when is Alianza Lima vs ADT played?
- Alianza Lima vs ADT is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Sporting CristalvsAtletico Grau
- Sep 19, 2026FBC MelgarvsSport Boys
- Sep 19, 2026Sport HuancayovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza AtleticovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 19, 2026CiencianovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsUniversitario
- Sep 19, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 19, 2026FC CajamarcavsCusco